2016 Annual Competitiveness Analysis and Growth Slowdown Analysis for ASEAN-10

<!-- <description> -->The book 2016 Annual Competitiveness Analysis and Growth Slowdown Analysis for ASEAN-10 begins by presenting the insights of Mr George Yeo, Former Minister for Foreign Affairs of Singapore, who provides a thoughtful reflection on identities and their continued relevance for policy-making. It then provides an update to the annual competitiveness analysis for ASEAN-10. Based on a rich dataset of 121 indicators, the study covers four environments of competitiveness: (1) Macroeconomic Stability, (2) Government and Institutional Setting, (3) Financial, Businesses and Manpower Conditions, and (4) Quality of Life and Infrastructure Development. It then presents each economy's strengths and weaknesses, and conducts “what-if” policy simulations to offer insights into the ASEAN economies. Furthermore, given prevailing worries about ASEAN economies falling into the “middle-income trap”, growth slowdown analysis for the ASEAN economies is conducted. Through income-group specific econometric models, determinants of growth slowdown are identified and predictive probability of slowdown for each ASEAN economy is computed. Finally, progress of economic reforms in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam is evaluated, from which policy implications for these countries' future development are drawn.
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<!-- <contents> -->Contents: A Sense of Self in an Age of Globalisation and ASEAN's Respect for Diversity2016 Update on Annual Competitiveness Analysis for ASEAN-10Growth Slowdown Analysis by Income Thresholds for ASEAN EconomiesTransitional Economies in ASEAN: Reform Progress, Challenges and Policy OptionsPositioning Singapore for the Waves of Change: Building Deep Capabilities for the Future EconomyConcluding Remarks and Future Research Agenda<!-- </contents> -->
<!-- <readership> -->Readership: Researchers and advance graduates studying ASEAN developmental economics. <!-- </readership> -->
Keywords:Competitiveness;Economic Development;Public Policy;ASEAN;Southeast Asia;Growth Slowdown;Bayesian Model Averaging;Transitional Economies;Cambodia;Laos;Myanmar;Vietnam;CLMV;George Yeo;Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI)Review:“I highly appreciate ACI's effort in conducting research on competitiveness improvement for Asian countries, especially the members of ASEAN over the past few years. We really look forward to deepening research cooperation between VCCI and ACI.”
Dr Vu Tien Loc
Chairman and President
Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), Vietnam
Key Features:Existing global competitiveness rankings such as the World Competitiveness Yearbook by the IMD World Competitiveness Centre and the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report are like beauty contests; they merely identify who are doing well and who are facing challenges, but stop short of giving more constructive advice on improving the rankings. The ACI's competitiveness framework goes one step further by tackling the “so what” question. What is the policy implication of a competitiveness ranking result for a particular economy? Under this overarching framework, ACI combines leading-edge research methodologies with extensive data collection efforts to evaluate and track economic competitiveness for the ASEAN-10 economies since 2000The book benefits from the insights of Mr George Yeo, Former Minister for Foreign Affairs of Singapore, who provides a thoughtful and timely reflections on the nature of human beings' identities and their continued relevance for policy-making. The shock election of Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States (US) and the victory of the “Leave” campaign during the Brexit referendum in 2016 have served to underscore the fact that the development of human societies is not only driven by economic but also sociological and political forces acting in conjunction with one another. As Mr Yeo states in his chapter contribution, in a region as diverse as Southeast Asia, we cannot ignore the influence of identities on humans' affairsACI offers an in-depth assessment on growth slowdown analysis for ASEAN countries. We are among the first, if not the first, to provide a systematic quantitative analysis on the issue of growth slowdown at the high-income level, on top of investigating growth slowdown for economies in other income groups. Furthermore, we are more comprehensive than existing literature and study all ASEAN economies for which data are available. Finally, our research has important policy implications. The empirical findings from our model specifications enable us to perform statistical predictions for each economy in our study on the probability of it experiencing growth slowdown in the near future. This probability can be interpreted as preliminary caution for national and local governments so that they could take targeted actions in order to minimise the chances of economic slowdown. Meanwhile, variables identified as determinants of growth slowdown by our models indicate areas where policy actions and supportive reforms are needed